With many countries now gradually easing their lockdown, all eyes are on recovery in terms of speed and to what extent one can expect. However, since the virus is still not fully contained, any major second wave of outbreak could easily derail a recovery that is fragile at this stage. Collaborating with our colleagues from the Citi Quantitative Risk and Stress Testing (QRS) team, we showcase their agent-based analysis which quantify the likely timing of full quarantine lifting and corresponding likelihood of a second wave1.
Armed with the knowledge from the analysis from QRS, this report is designed to provide a framework for assessing country economic activities through the lens of alternative data. We demonstrate how alternative data can be used effectively to identify any green shoots as the global economic recovery starts to get underway. Amongst other data sources, we have also invited LUCA to illustrate the insights that can be derived from the mobility data at their fingertips. In terms of country focus, we select a number of countries in Europe and the US as they became the epicenters of the outbreak immediately after Asia, and have now relaxed their respective lockdowns, ideal for assessing impact of lockdown and signs of recovery. This established framework can then be utilised as a recovery dashboard which we will update regularly.